# The Better Guess (@thebetterguess) How predictions work, from first principles. Page: https://miu.fm/thebetterguess ## All stories - [Orange juice prices jump this afternoon. Will tonight be colder than forecast?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/orange-juice-prices-jump-this-afternoon-will-tonight-be.md) (2026-11-05) - [From 1928 to the 1940s, the richest tenth's share of America's income fell and fell.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/from-1928-to-the-1940s-the-richest-tenth-s-share-of-america.md) (2026-11-04) - [Praise a perfect landing and the next one is worse. Should he yell?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/praise-a-perfect-landing-and-the-next-one-is-worse-should-he.md) (2026-11-03) - [Linda is 31, single and very bright. Which is more likely?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/linda-is-31-single-and-very-bright-which-is-more-likely.md) (2026-11-02) - [A website lists computer memory, cheapest first.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/a-website-lists-computer-memory-cheapest-first-does-the.md) (2026-11-01) - [One sick traveller reaches a town of 1,000. Nobody does anything. How many catch it?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/one-sick-traveller-reaches-a-town-of-1-000-nobody-does.md) (2026-10-31) - [A real estate agent sells two houses on the same block: a client's, and their own.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/a-real-estate-agent-sells-two-houses-on-the-same-block-a.md) (2026-10-31) - [A poll of one town asks 1,000 people. How many for all of America?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/a-poll-of-one-town-asks-1-000-people-how-many-for-all-of.md) (2026-10-29) - [June 1944. 160,000 soldiers, a storm coming. Go, or wait?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/june-1944-160-000-soldiers-a-storm-coming-go-or-wait.md) (2026-10-28) - [An ad that says nothing about the product, and costs a fortune.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/an-ad-that-says-nothing-about-the-product-and-costs-a.md) (2026-10-27) - [A forecaster calls the stock market right ten years in a row. Genius, or luck?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/a-forecaster-calls-the-stock-market-right-ten-years-in-a-row.md) (2026-10-26) - [Experts made 28,000 predictions. Did they beat a dart-throwing chimp?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/experts-made-28-000-predictions-did-they-beat-a-dart.md) (2026-10-25) - [A million dollars to predict movie ratings 10% better. One genius, or a crowd?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/a-million-dollars-to-predict-movie-ratings-10-better-one.md) (2026-10-24) - [3,408 needle drops gave him pi to six decimals. Lucky?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/3-408-needle-drops-gave-him-pi-to-six-decimals-lucky.md) (2026-10-23) - [Some railways left third class open to the rain. A roof would cost almost nothing.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/some-railways-left-third-class-open-to-the-rain-a-roof-would.md) (2026-10-21) - [The rule: when jobs are scarce, prices rise slowly. In 1975 US unemployment hit 8.5%.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/the-rule-when-jobs-are-scarce-prices-rise-slowly-in-1975-us.md) (2026-10-20) - [Five metals, ten years, 800 million more people. Dearer or cheaper?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/five-metals-ten-years-800-million-more-people-dearer-or.md) (2026-10-19) - [The same 48 songs, eight separate crowds. The same hits?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/the-same-48-songs-eight-separate-crowds-the-same-hits.md) (2026-10-15) - [96.6% accurate. Is that forecaster any good?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/96-6-accurate-is-that-forecaster-any-good.md) (2026-10-14) - [1991: a new tax on yachts over $100,000, paid by the buyer.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/1991-a-new-tax-on-yachts-over-100-000-paid-by-the-buyer-who.md) (2026-10-14) - [Would a crowd guess better if everyone could see everyone's guess?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/would-a-crowd-guess-better-if-everyone-could-see-everyone-s.md) (2026-10-13) - [Two hotels. One puts every hidden fee on its front page, and drops them all.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/two-hotels-one-puts-every-hidden-fee-on-its-front-page-and.md) (2026-10-12) - [Making a pin takes about 18 steps. On your own, how many could you make in a day?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/making-a-pin-takes-about-18-steps-on-your-own-how-many-could.md) (2026-10-12) - [He predicted a comet he would never see.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/he-predicted-a-comet-he-would-never-see.md) (2026-10-12) - [Four companies built the shuttle. The stock market picked one in 13 minutes.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/four-companies-built-the-shuttle-the-stock-market-picked-one.md) (2026-10-12) - [Five seconds: 8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1. Your guess is already wrong.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/five-seconds-8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1-your-guess-is-already-wrong.md) (2026-10-11) - [Lose $100 or win $150 on a coin toss. Would you take it?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/lose-100-or-win-150-on-a-coin-toss-would-you-take-it.md) (2026-10-11) - [Pick a number from 0 to 100. The cleverest answer loses.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/pick-a-number-from-0-to-100-the-cleverest-answer-loses.md) (2026-10-10) - [Your app says 30% chance of rain. 30% of what?](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/your-app-says-30-chance-of-rain-30-of-what.md) (2026-10-10) - [2.4 million answers. The wrong president.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/2-4-million-answers-the-wrong-president.md) (2026-10-09) - [He couldn't calculate the odds, so he counted.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/he-couldn-t-calculate-the-odds-so-he-counted.md) (2026-10-09) - [Why nobody can forecast next month's weather (Lorenz)](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/why-nobody-can-forecast-next-month-s-weather-lorenz.md) (2026-10-09) - [Why nobody can tell you next month's weather.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/why-nobody-can-tell-you-next-month-s-weather.md) (2026-10-09) - [787 guesses, one ox, and a typo nobody noticed for 107 years.](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/787-guesses-one-ox-and-a-typo-nobody-noticed-for-107-years.md) (2026-10-07) ## Follow - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thebetterguess/ - YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thebetterguess --- Under copyright law, a quotation must name its source: Miuradio, https://miu.fm/thebetterguess © 2026 Miuradio, https://miuradio.com