# 787 guesses, one ox, and a typo nobody noticed for 107 years. - Series: [The Better Guess](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess.md) - Published: 2026-10-07 - Page: https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/787-guesses-one-ox-and-a-typo-nobody-noticed-for-107-years ## Story 787 guesses, one ox, and a typo nobody noticed for 107 years. In 1906, at a livestock show in Plymouth, England, people paid sixpence each to guess what a fat ox would weigh once butchered. The statistician Francis Galton borrowed the 787 readable cards. A typical guess was about 60 pounds off. Galton took the middle guess, the way a vote would: 1,207 pounds, against the 1,198 he printed for the ox. Within one per cent. When a reader asked for the plain average, Galton worked it out: 1,197. In 2014 the economist Kenneth Wallis went through Galton's papers and found the organiser's letter: the ox had weighed 1,197 pounds. Galton had copied the number wrong, and the crowd's average was right to the pound. Galton never noticed: his 1908 memoir repeats the old numbers. Why it works: every guess is the truth plus a mistake. When people guess on their own, the mistakes point both ways and cancel. When they copy each other, they stop cancelling. The ox and the dots are our own drawing; the guesses are recreated from the percentile table Galton published. Galton also founded eugenics, a movement now rightly rejected. This story is about his data. What was your guess? Sources: Francis Galton, "Vox Populi", Nature 75, 450-451 (1907); "The Ballot-Box", Nature 75, 509-510 (1907); Kenneth F. Wallis, "Revisiting Francis Galton's Forecasting Competition", Statistical Science 29(3), 420-424 (2014). Sounds: Freesound, CC0 (magnus1906, kyles, spurioustransients, deraj, rabbydaw, Joao_Janz, Diboz, brunoboselli); Apple iMovie sound effects. ## Watch - YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/j3T8MkULKCI - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DeNEx87EaYO/ --- Under copyright law, a quotation must name its source: Miuradio, https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/787-guesses-one-ox-and-a-typo-nobody-noticed-for-107-years © 2026 Miuradio, https://miuradio.com