# Experts made 28,000 predictions. Did they beat a dart-throwing chimp?

- Series: [The Better Guess](https://miu.fm/thebetterguess.md)
- Published: 2026-10-25
- Page: https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/experts-made-28-000-predictions-did-they-beat-a-dart

## Story

Experts made 28,000 predictions. Did they beat a dart-throwing chimp?

In 1984 Philip Tetlock began asking about 280 experts, people who studied politics and economics, to put numbers on the future. Will this leader fall? Will this economy grow? Seventy percent, or ten? Then he waited for years and scored every forecast like a weather forecast: say ninety percent, and it should happen nine times in ten.

Some experts thought with one big idea. He called them hedgehogs. Others juggled many small ideas and changed their minds: foxes.

On average, the experts were only a bit better than random guessing. That was his own joke: the dart-throwing chimp. But not all of them. The foxes did clearly better, and years later his forecasting tournament found a few people who were really good. He called them superforecasters. Their trick: putting their own opinions aside.

Knowing a lot isn't the same as forecasting well. Keep score, and change your mind.

The darts on the board are our sketch, not the study's data.

So, did they beat the chimp? What did you say?

Sources: Dan Gardner and Philip Tetlock, "Overcoming Our Aversion to Acknowledging Our Ignorance", Cato Unbound, 2011; Philip Tetlock, Wharton Magazine, 2016; Philip Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment, 2005.
Sounds: our own, made in code (earshot, CC0).

## Watch

- Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/reel/De7RRGKAEU1/

---

Under copyright law, a quotation must name its source: Miuradio, https://miu.fm/thebetterguess/experts-made-28-000-predictions-did-they-beat-a-dart

© 2026 Miuradio, https://miuradio.com